If you’re acquainted with horse racing or have delved into its literature, you might’ve stumbled upon the terms ’tissue’ or ’tissue price’. This article seeks to demystify these terms and highlight their significance in long-term betting.
What are Tissue Prices?
Tissue prices are essentially a set of odds derived from ratings, usually converted to probabilities. Typically, several factors contribute to a horse’s rating. Once established, these ratings are transformed into percentages, making the derivation of tissue prices more straightforward. For instance, if a horse has a 20% chance of winning, this corresponds to odds of 5/1. Similarly, a 25% chance translates to odds of 4/1.
Publications like the Racing Post often offer a ’tissue price’ or betting forecast. Located at the bottom of the race card for each race, this represents what they deem as ‘fair odds’ for each runner. It’s worth noting that discrepancies exist among odds compilers. While they might concur on the top contenders, the exact tissue prices might differ.
The Importance of Tissue Prices
Understanding and employing tissue prices is pivotal for bettors. Their primary utility lies in identifying value bets. If, for instance, your tissue prices indicate 5/1 for a horse, but you can back it at 10/1, this provides a significant edge. Over time, consistently betting on such discrepancies will tilt the profit scale in your favor, nullifying the bookie’s margin.
Consider a hypothetical example: Race: Sedgefield 14:20
Using a tool such as Price Finder, it’s quick and easy to input the ratings and formulate probabilities and target odds for use in comparison against the market.
Using ratings from Infineform, one could convert ratings to odds and then juxtapose these against the actual odds on offer. Such a strategy helps identify possible value bets. The reliability of the ratings you use is paramount. While there are many rating services, the likes of Infineform, Timeform, and Form Genie have gained commendations for their precision.
As the original author of the article Tissue Prices and Ratings Explained, published on bettingtools.co.uk in 2016, I am pleased to say the idea of using tissue prices as the basis of a sound value betting strategy has risen considerably. Minds greater than mine have taken up the subject and extended it even further.
Why Tissue Prices Matter
Tissue prices are essential tools in a bettor’s toolkit. A well-constructed set of tissue prices can be the difference between achieving a long-term profit or consistently emptying one’s pockets to the bookie. Here’s why:
Spotting Value: If your tissue prices indicate a horse is worth 5/1, but the market offers 10/1, you’ve identified a potential value bet. Recognizing and acting on these discrepancies can tilt the odds in your favor over time.
Informed Betting: Tissue prices offer a more rational and calculated approach to betting, moving away from emotional or impulsive choices.
Comparing with Actual Market Prices: By developing your own set of tissue prices, you can juxtapose them against market prices. Such comparisons can highlight where the market might be overvaluing or undervaluing certain runners.
Compiling Tissue Prices: A Step-by-Step Process
- Rating Calculation: Initially, various factors, such as a horse’s previous performance, the jockey’s history, the track condition, and more, are combined to arrive at a rating figure for each horse.
- Conversion to Probability: The rating is then converted into a percentage, representing the horse’s likelihood of winning. For instance, if a horse has a 20% chance of victory based on its rating, it equates to odds of 5/1. A 25% probability translates to around 4/1 odds.
- Comparison with Market: Publications like the Racing Post often provide a betting forecast at the bottom of each race card. This is essentially their interpretation of ‘fair odds’ for each horse. However, it’s worth noting that no two odd compilers will consistently arrive at identical prices, reflecting the subjective nature of the process. Differences in tissue prices between compilers can offer insights into market dynamics and potential value.
A Comprehensive View Through Ratings
Ratings offer a consolidated perspective on each race participant. They simplify the selection process by incorporating various factors into a single rating figure. Horses surpassing a certain rating threshold, or median rating, are statistically more likely to win, while those below it can often be disregarded.
A Note of Caution
No rating system is infallible. Just as no strategy assures consistent profits, ratings won’t guarantee perpetual success. Yet, in the constant duel against bookies and market dynamics, they’re invaluable.
Exploring Rating Platforms
For those keen on diving deeper into ratings, here are some platforms to consider:
- Infineform: A reliable resource for understanding horse ratings.
- Timeform: An industry standard known for its precision.
- Form Genie: A commendable service now leveraging a web-based system.
- Racing Research: Pricier, but offers exceptional insights.
- Form Ratings: An untested commercial service with a free trial.
These platforms either come with personal endorsements or have garnered positive feedback. However, like all tools, their efficacy varies, and personal due diligence is recommended.
Horse racing, with its myriad of variables, is both a science and an art. While tissue prices provide a more analytical lens through which to view racing, they should be combined with experience and intuition for optimal results. Various rating services, such as Timeform, Form Genie, and Racing Research, offer insights that can be leveraged to enhance one’s betting strategy. But remember, no tool or approach guarantees consistent success. Like all aspects of horse racing, tissue prices are just one weapon in a bettor’s arsenal in the perpetual tussle against the bookie and the ever-evolving market.