Given that most people who bet on horses lose, it is likely that the reason is due to a fundamental issue rather than to the individuals involved or the methods that they employ. This article, together with the next on betting exchanges, discusses the reason why this is the case.
If a horse is backed to win, there are two options: The bet can either be placed with a bookmaker or on a betting exchange. If a horse is backed to lose (layed), there is only one option: The bet must be placed on a betting exchange since bookmakers do not accept bets on horses to lose.
When a bet is placed on a horse, there are two choices: a selection system can be used to identify those horses which should be layed to lose or backed to win, or random amounts of money can be placed on randomly selected horses running in randomly selected races i.e. not use a selection system at all.
At this point, we should now have a selection system or, at least, the tips from one. As was stated earlier, even a bad selection system is better than no selection system at all. The reason for this is that the results of even a bad system can be analysed, and valid conclusions drawn, whereas it is pointless analysing the results of a totally random system since the results of the analysis will also be totally random. As a result, any conclusions draw from the analysis will be irrelevant.
Essentially, a filter is a rule which is applied to a selection system in order to eliminate selections that, based upon the analysis of past results, have a significant chance of providing us with a losing bet. Filters can be based upon any variable associated with a horse.
Although the Strike Rate of a selection system is not the be-all-and-end-all, ignore it at your peril. The Strike Rate of a selection system is usually expressed as a percentage. To calculate it, the number of winning bets is divided by the total number of bets made. The result is then multiplied by 100 to convert it to a percentage.
How do we calculate whether a selection system is likely to be profitable or not in the long term? To calculate whether or not a laying selection system is profitable in the long term, we need two pieces of information: The first is the selection system’s strike rate and the second is the average odds of the losing bets.
Losing runs can quickly decimate a betting bank to the point where it is difficult, if not impossible, to recover the losses incurred without an outrageous run of good luck. Losing runs can occur at any time and without any warning whatsoever.
No newly-created, or newly-purchased, selection system should ever be used in earnest until it has been fully tested and has proven itself to be profitable. Testing provides a degree of reassurance that the system will be profitable in the future.
Before bets are placed on horses, it is recommended that a betting bank is created. The creation of a betting bank is part of the discipline that is required of those who place bets on horses.
In this article, we take an in-depth look at staking plans. A staking plan is a method that ensures that bets are placed in a logical, structured and efficient a manner. Staking plans ensure that maximum profit is extracted from a selection system.
From time to time, bets will be lost. It is inevitable since no selection system is 100% effective. What happens next sorts out the professionals from the amateurs and the successful from the unsuccessful.
Our greatest asset is our betting bank. Without it, our betting activities will cease, so it should be used in the most effective manner possible. One way of ensuring this is to carefully select the races that are bet on.
As discussed in previous articles, our greatest asset is our betting bank. It should, therefore, be used in the most effective and efficient manner possible. One way of ensuring this is to carefully select the races that are bet on, particularly with regard to the number of runners in the race.
The strike rate of a horse, in general, is reflected in its odds. While there are exceptions to the rule, statistics indicate that horses whose odds movement shows a downward trend in the last five minutes of betting before the start of the race win more frequently than those whose odds increase in the last five minutes of betting.
A Steamer is defined as horse whose implied percentage chance of winning increases by 5%, or more, in the last two hours of betting. A Drifter is defined as horse whose implied percentage chance of winning decreases by 5%, or more, in the last two hours of betting.
Arbitrage isn’t about buying or selling anything, it’s about deciding whether the price of an item will increase or decrease and then taking advantage of the price movement. In this series, we take an in-depth look at horse racing arbitrage, with practical examples.
A number of people who bet on horses set themselves a daily profit target. When the target is reached, they cease betting for the day. The theory behind this is that the more bets that are placed, the more likely it is that a loss will be incurred. So, in order to retain the profit made on a given day, once the target is reached, betting for the day ceases.
Just when a system has established a winning run is the time when most new systems are implemented and tipping service subscriptions purchased. This is precisely the point at which a system is at its most vulnerable to a run of bad luck.
These days, bookies will do anything to get new business. They will even offer cash incentives. Some bookies will even continue to offer cash incentives - just as long as you remain their customer. Here's how to take advantage and profit from their generosity.
Before anyone starts betting on horses, or anything else, for that matter, here is a cautionary (true) tale. When I first started betting on horses, I used to transfer funds back and forth, from my then only current account, into the betting accounts that I held with bookmakers and betting exchanges. What a fool I was!
Once upon a time, in order to place a bet, it was necessary to pay a visit to the offices of a bookmaker. Today, this has all changed and bets can now additionally be placed over the phone and via the Internet. However, with this convenience and new technology, there are also associated risks that could have strong financial implications if things go wrong. This article looks at how to prepare for possible technology failure.
Before betting for the day begins, it is worth spending a little time preparing for the day’s betting exploits. As the saying goes ‘If you fail to prepare then be prepared to fail.’ or words to that effect. In other words, a plan or strategy for the day should be created. All that is then needed is to follow the plan. In this way, there are no decisions to make in the heat of the moment.
In this article we explore the notion of 'beginners luck' and whether or not it's fact or fiction based on what happens next.
As a punter, the odds are heavily stacked against you winning - mainly because of the bookie’s overround and the commission payable on all winning bets to the betting exchanges. As such, there is little latitude for error. You must remain disciplined at all times if you are to profit long term.
In this article we look at horse racing terminology and aim to define what certain terms mean in order to get a better understanding of the sport. Consider this a basic glossary of horse racing, where commonly used horse racing terms are explained.
In this article we look at the concept of horse racing systems, methods and filters. We also aim to explain exactly what a system, method and filter is. The article is relatively old, but the concept remains valid and makes interesting reading.
In this article we look at the implications of loss recovery when laying horses to lose on betting exchanges. This is an old article from the previously published Bet or Trade website in 2008, and the author is unknown, however the principles are just as valid today as they were then and it makes interesting reading.