There is a saying about beginner’s luck, but, is this fact or is it fiction?

Let’s say that there is a group of people who all begin gambling at the same time and all place some initial bets.

Within the group, there will be winners and there will be losers.

Let’s, first of all, consider those that initially win.

It is likely that although some will cease gambling in order to retain their winnings, a relatively large proportion will continue in the hope of winning more money.

Now, let’s consider those that initially lose.

It is likely that although some will continue gambling in the hope that they can recover their losses, a relatively large proportion will cease before their losses become unsustainable.

Now, let’s consider what happens next.

The remaining group of gamblers place more bets.

Again, within the group. there will be winners and there will be losers.

It is likely that although some of the winners will cease gambling in order to retain their winnings, a relatively large proportion will continue in the hope of winning even more money.

It is likely that although some of the losers will continue gambling in the hope that they can recover their losses, a relatively large proportion will cease before their losses become unsustainable.

If we continue with this exercise, the remaining group will contain an ever-increasing proportion of winners.

Eventually, only those that consistently win will remain within the group and, of these, the vast majority will have initially won (i.e. they will have experienced beginner’s luck).

What this shows is that, for someone to remain within the group, it is highly likely that they will have experienced beginner’s luck and will thus communicate it to others.

What this also shows is that beginner’s luck is a myth.